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Thursday, October 19, 2006


I finally had to say something about all of this hype about the Dow. It seems that too many really do NOT know the truth about the Dow' highs. People seem to forget to add in inflation when they hear what the Dow is doing (including the mass media). So me, always a facetious pain, decided to give to those few that will take the time to research a bit, a heads-up. Yes, I am ready for the few neonuts that will try to say this thread is false, now on to some facts.

The Dow made it to a new closing high this week, and in my opinion, it is a miracle that the market didn't completely collapse after September's inflation report. The report of the highest level of inflation in 11 years should have been the straw that broke the camel's back. The camel's load already seems to be getting pretty heavy to me: The yield curve has remained inverted for months; we had the first negative reading in the Philly Fed index in three years; national housing sales have plunged and prices are showing their first declines since 1993. The index of leading economic indicators has declined for seven straight months. Online advertising revenue is down; newspaper advertising revenue is down; the help wanted index is down. Across the board the economic news is terrible - everything is pointing to a recession.

Everything, that is, except for the stock market. It makes me consider that the only things standing between this market and a crash are the November elections. Under normal circumstances, September's inflation report - the highest inflation reading in 11 years - would have absolutely creamed the market. This market is priced to perfection, and believes that the Fed is done raising interest rates, that inflation is under control. Under other circumstances, September's news would have been a splash of ice cold water on the buoyant market. But the Dow took it all in stride, just as it has taken all of the bad news of the past few weeks in stride, levitating like the undead to its all time high. There is, to put it mildly, something fishy about this market. Its levitating act has the feel of something unnatural. This being the case, it is impossible not to ask: How hard could it be to manipulate the Dow - just 30 stocks - for a few weeks until the election? Especially considering that your Secretary of the Treasury is the ex-Chairman of Goldman Sachs?

Let's just say that in the next couple of weeks before the election that the Dow makes even a new high. Even so, it will be a meaningless high. For one, the index is still substantially lower than its 2000 peak after adjusting for inflation. And the Dow of today isn't even made up of the same stocks as it was in 2000! A new high, if we do get it, will be meaningless - a phony, sham new high. But it will serve its purpose - the same purpose as the Newsweak cover above: It will give the appearance that everything is just groovy going into November's election. When things start to look bad for Bush & Co, you should have expected a big run up in the market and a big, distracting, meaningless piece of spectacular news: Dow Hits New High!

The Dow'S new high, is a phony new high, since adjusted for inflation, we are nowhere near the old highs. Using the Fed's very own CPI Inflation calculator we find that we'd need a 13,817 Dow today to equal the 11,750 Dow of 2000.

Am I suggesting that the market is being manipulated for political purposes? Gasp! Shocking, I know. But to quote Mr. Bush himself, "If you fool me, you can't get fooled again." (huh?) We've had six years now to see how tricky this administration can be. According to Bob Woodward, Bush has Tricky Dick's evil old mentor himself, Henry Kissenger, dropping by the White House regularly for secret consultations. We know that Bush's father lost the election because of "the economy, stupid," and Bush's Brain Karl Rove isn't stupid enough to let that happen again.

Bush is good friends with Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and if Saudi Arabia opens its oil spigots wide then the price of oil can be made to fall very quickly. Like eighteen bucks a barrel in a couple of months quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see further strategic reductions heading into the election. Am I suggesting manipulation of the oil market for political gain? Shocking, I know.

Could there be any better way to deflect attention from the issues that really matter in the upcoming 19 days? "It's the economy, stupid." Those words must have been seared into Bush's brain. With new stock market highs - false as they may be - Bush may finally have evidence of the "great economy" that no one else seems to see but him.

~~~~~~Forever A Facetious Pain~~~~~~
~~~~~~Enlightened Smiles~~~~~~


Jay156 said...

have you ever earned a dollar or bought a stock? The market is high for a few reasons. consumer confidence is high, unemployment is low, gas prices are comfortable for adults who earn a living, and our country is secure and has been for a good while now. Inflation itself won't kill the market...Can I just have one favor? Can you quit rooting for the downfall of America just so that you can say "see I told you so?" Thanks...The Mgmt.

Anonymous said...

Here, Here Jay!

Im so sick of the left wishing for the country to fall. Facetious Muse and Claus are two of the worst! I hate to tell them, but after Bush is gone, we still live here!

Bunch of dumb ass sons of bitches.

Facetious Muse said...

One question for you both, do you guys read at all? This is fact, not a wish for the downfall of the US, but if people such as yourselves were allowed to 'rule' the country it would be. Jay I'm pretty sure I prolly make more money than you could possibly imagine, not all people with good incomes and money think it is fair for others to go hungry or without homes.

From this moment on I'm not going to bother to reply to you or your little sheeps, unless you guys can learn how to debate instead of insult.

Both that have posted here so far, prove what many think of neonuts, you don't care what is going on or not going on. YOu have no desire to try to speak your views or reasons you think as you do (I actally have quite a few conversative friends that debate with me and at times both sides agrees with the other).

It seems to me that Jay and his followers are very unhappy people and as the saying goes, misery loves company.

This is for adults, not little boys and little girls wanting to prove who is the meanest, rudest, or biggest bully.

Seriously, you guys are not worth the time nor energy to even speak to, therefore after this reply I will not be doing so.

You think no one notices that you didn't say a thing about the thread? Do you think people don't know you only want attention you must have been so sorely depraved of as children?

Sorry to sound so mean, but unruly children sometimes need a wake up call, since you desire attention, time out for you and your followers.

So go ahead and have your little temper tantrums and post silly, childish bullshit, but know I'm no longer playing this game with you.

Now one last question, was anything in the thread false, no it was not.
Enough with the insults and personal attacks, adults do not do this.

Only those that are emotional immature take a fact based, debates welcome thread and turn it into a bash fest. You act as though you know my political views, yet you do not. I have a hard time seeing how you can say I am wishing for downfall of US by stating facts.

I wish that one day you may find some happiness, and some maturity, until then bitch all you want I'm finished playing with those that act like children.

There is a famous saying, YOu can never win an argument with a fool, never were there truer words spoken.

~~~~~Forever A Facetious Muse~~~~~

Anonymous said...

No one thinks its fair that people go without food or without homes. You surely dont think that people that work hard for what they have think that. The point is that you all try to portray the economy than it is. I dont know who you are trying to impress with your idiotic statements. They dont work with real thinking people. I wouldnt expect you to understand though. I hate all you bleeding hearts who think YOU are the only people in the country who have hearts. Get over yourself!

I suppose its ok for you to insult, complain and claim someone else did it. How typical of you.

Face it, the economy is not bad right now. You just cant stand it... admit it, being the liar that you have shown yourself to be.

Muse you make me sick. You are the epitomy of the problem in this country today.

Michelle said...

Muse now you know why I give up. This left-right, neocon-liberal shite is getting old. You can show them stats, you can show them the obvious, but, until they are in someone else's shoes, they will not feel what that person feels. Thanks for the information Muse, it is much appreciated. I guess when December-January rolls around, then people will see how they have been manipulated by this administration and the media.

Eff25 said...

Truth is, this is all over my head, but it's at least clear to me that the points that could, I suppose, be debated, are if the evidences you provide support your theories; if they're enough to bring the notion that market is being manipulated out of the realm of conjecture. I also don't know how much of your argument is supported by precedence.

Anonymous said...

Her argument is bullshit. She has made references to things that she has no idea how to interpret.

AnonymousPoster said...

My comment...

FRisson1 said...

LMFAO....... neocons trying to drag us back over to "conservative think" no way Jose. I like blogs where they don't delete your counter

Anonymous said...

Democrat liberals are the biggest chickens. They never venture outside the comfort and protection of their kind. They never express an idea that hasnt already been approved by someone they think knows more than they do but thinks the same. They never think for themselves but stay right here where they can be backed up by their kind. Chickens. Cowards. What's wrong with going to read other opinions?

Anonymous said...

What are you afraid of frisson?

Facetious Muse said...

Thank you Michelle, and boy can I understand why you have the desire to give up trying to share information.

You know I don't usually take pleasure in being right about things that can cause others discomfort, but I do think that come mid-dec or early Jan a few people's eyes will be opened to what has really been going on.

And will I be here saying 'I told you so'? Nah, I think I will just wait to see how the spin works when democrats take control of the house :o)

~~~~~~Forever A Facetious Pain~~~~~~

Facetious Muse said...

Eff, what infor are you looking for? If I can help explain this in anyway, please let me know. In the thread I placed two links, one for the Sept. inflation report the other one is the Federal Governments own calculator for CPI (Customers Price index) inflation rates. At this site you can find the formula to figure out the DOW's actually numbers in monies accounting for inflation.

Also to share a bit more that the DOW is doing a wee bit too well if one takes into account, Ford announced 5.8 billion dollar lost and Dow's own Component Caterpillar (CAT)'s 14% drop on Friday(biggest drop since 1987), the slowing housing market, nor any number of factors pointing to a slowing economy seems to be affecting the DOW, this is also in spite of the fact it is extremely overbought and trader optimism is at record.

It is as though we've entered an alternate 1984 universe in which all bad news is good news.

I hope that I helped a bit in explaining this futher to you Eff, I do have links about all I mentioned here if you wish to have them.

Again, Eff a pleasure debating with you :o)

~~~~~~Forever A Facetious Pain~~~~~~

Eff25 said...

No links necessary; they wouldn't really help. I think I have the gist of your argument. I'm just a dolt on these things. My economic understanding is hardly even rudimentary.

Anonymous said...

The facts dont lie eff. They are easy to read. Look at the numbers. Things arent as bad as the left wants you to believe. According to them, the sky is falling and it's all George Bush's fault.

Anonymous said...

BTW, eff, look at the numbers and figure them out for yourself, not what people on the left want you to believe about them. Get real factual information.

FRisson1 said...

I am afraid of nothing my cheeky little neocon friends. I have no respect for the blog "conservative think". The last time I put a post about my political opinion it was deleted in the "Great Purge". It was a political comment not a personal comment but that made no difference. Why should I waste my time posting on a boring far right wing blog just to have the owner delete it. It seems that the neocons are afraid of differing views not the liberals. Rattler, a liberal blog, allows all to post not just people they agree with..... lol

Anonymous said...

Is that why he stopped allowing anonymous comments for a while? LOL Lost that argument frisson.

Facetious Muse said...

Yo, anonyMouse, I did place the link (the Fed's own one too) for anyone to do the numbers themselves. Have youtried it yet, oh wait that woud mean you would have to had passed math in grade school, sorry didnt mean to appear mean( yes this is me being facetious)

Goodness, again some show how igonant they truly are. These are not numbers I came by in a dream, these are true numbers by the US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT!!!!

Now anonyMOUSE, again I suggest that before you make a comment, you take teh time to know what the hell you are talking about. Or you going to say the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT is lying about the CPI (something I'm sure you didn't have a clue what it meant).

Numbers look good, but let's all be honest here, no one play the stocks to see numbers all time high in numbers only, we play the stocks to make money, and as far as money goes the DOW is NOT at an all time high if one has the brains to take into consideration inflation, get a clue.

~~~~~~Forever A Facetious Pain~~~~~~

Anonymous said...

YOU, who said the DOW was "going south"; who cant figure out that 12,000 is more than 11,000 thinks I AM ignorant? LMAO

Hey, dumbass, you think the DOW is still going down? LMAOOO

Facetious Muse said...

AnonyMouse, do you have a reading problem? The day I place the comment you keep referring to the DOW did in fact lose some ground. Now you really need to educate yourself, do you see anyone at all even Jay, supporting you? No you know why, they understand what CPI is and what the actually monies you can get now with the DOW a bit over 12,000 to what monies you would get in 2000 with the DOW at 11,000. Get clue or education, or better yet stfu, you are truly becoming a bore.